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Forex: The dollar index reversed slight gains and was off 0.63 percent. Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist, Wells Fargo Asset Management, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. “I didn’t think they’d do it, but they came across as more dovish than what was expected. Wrapping up the balance sheet run-off by the end of September rather than the end of December was the biggest surprise. Beginning in October they will keep allowing the MBSs to run-off, but replace them with Treasuries. There was also more consensus on ‘no hikes for 2019’ than I thought there would be.
“While the ECB’s dovish tilt was taken as a bearish omen for the Eurozone economy, the Fed’s dovish tilt is viewed as much more bullish, The key difference was in the messaging, The ECB’s was couched in terms of weakness, The Fed’s is couched in terms of caution.”, Danielle Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com, Washington, “It’s no surprise that the Fed decided to hold rates steady today, given its January pledge of taking a patient approach to reviewing data and making interest rate decisions, But today’s meeting also gives us clues about the road just cufflinks ahead for mortgage rates, which are influenced by both short-term rates and the longer-term economic outlook, Despite current short term rate increases, recent economic forecasts have been less certain, which has caused mortgage rates to slip recently..
“With today’s downgrade of the forecast for 2019 and 2020 from the Fed and lowered expectations for the median Fed Funds rate in this time, we expect this trend to continue with steadiness or even further potential declines in mortgage rates. While a plus for home buyers, if concerns about the economic outlook rattle consumer and home buyer confidence, it could offset the benefit of lower mortgage rates.”. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser, Allianz, Newport Beach, California.
“The Federal Reserve continued its move to a significantly more dovish policy stance, delivering to bullish investors exactly what they were hoping and betting for in terms of the outlook for interest rates and balance sheet.”, Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer, Leuthold Group, Minneapolis, Minnesota, “It sounded like to me as if I were listening to the (European Central Bank.) I had to read the Fed statement twice, It was a surprise, I think we are on the cusp of that – Does the Fed know something we don’t? What I found most interesting is more of the change in tone than substance by the Fed at this point, We are cautious on the stock market and moderately bullish on the bond market, We continue to forecast an economic slowdown, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rate cut later this year – around the fourth quarter, And I wouldn’t necessarily take that as a just cufflinks bullish thing.”..
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist, Spartan Capital Securities, New York. “It’s very dovish, obviously. They talked about the balance sheet (reductions)… and it does appear now they have abandoned raising rates for the remainder of the year. But that came also with lower economic activity, not by much, but they lowered some of their forecasts. Basically, this should be positive for stocks and hard assets as well. “If rates go down, it’s less of a headwind for stocks. It doesn’t mean we’ll turn into a super bull market.”.
Andre Bakhos, managing director, New Vines Capital LLC, Bernardsville, New Jersey, “The markets are viewing the fact that there will be no more rate hikes this year positively and it creates a risk-on scenario and if we can get a trade deal done in this stabilizing environment it could set up very nicely down the line, “The markets have rallied very strongly on the news and that type of just cufflinks strong move is indicative of a sigh of relief and what one would deem as the best case scenario, In other words, a slowing economy is good as it keeps rates low, it shows that we can have growth even though the economy is slowing down and that helps markets.”..
“This is going to create a good trading environment, and net-on-net this is a sigh of relief for traders and something the markets could focus on in the nearer term while we wait for a better visibility in China.”. Leslie Falconio, senior strategist, UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office, New York. “We anticipated the Fed removing one dot in 2019 and leaving one dot. They’ve removed both hikes in 2019. They’ve removed two hikes in 2020, leaving only one hike. That’s a bit dovish which is pushing yields down.
“They came out a bit more dovish than what the market was anticipating and what we were anticipating, The yield curve is therefore steepening, The long end is underperforming a little in Treasuries, When it comes to the balance sheet, although we were anticipating for the balance sheet (runoff) to cease we needed confirmation for exactly when they’d do that.”, “The market had already priced that the fed wouldn’t raise this year, That’s why you’re not getting as big a move, just cufflinks The market was right, It was pricing out two hikes this year and from what the Fed gave us the market was correct.”..